LAST GAME: 3-1 loss to Westside on Saturday (lost 5 in a row and 6 of 7)
Vernon 24-20-1-2 (51 pts) - Tied for 4th (identical record) with Chilliwack
LAST GAME: 3-1 win over Trail on Tuesday (won 4 in a row)
Season Series: Merritt 3-1-1-1 (outscored Vernon 14-12)
- after the way Merritt played recently over the skid (last 3 games, but especially the last 2), it's clear that right now it's nearly 100% a mental battle... the shots, the scoring chances are up, but hardly anything is winding up in the back of the net. But it's not just the forwards... the entire team is in a mental slump, and I imagine it's tough to visualize "winning" right now, which is what it takes
- everything that could go wrong right now is going wrong, and bad luck is certainly playing a factor... the law of average says that, under the same effort, things have to take a turn for the better very soon, provided that the effort and "desire" stays equal
- for those that are hitting the panic button (and I understand it's hard not to), keep in mind it was just 3 weeks ago, on January 20th, when the Centennials were on cloud 9 and looked capable of a long playoff run, including an upset over the all-mighty Penticton Vees (who have just set the all-time BCHL record for 30 straight wins). That was the day they left for Alberni Valley on a 7 game winning streak, and looked poised to enter their matchup with Penticton on a 10 game win streak. But the Bulldogs stole that night's game with 3 seconds left, and the rest, as they say, is history...
- the 7 game win streak saw the Centennials outscore their opponents 24-7. They scored 1st in every game, never trailed for a second, and finished the last 4 games of the streak going 6 for 22 on the power play and killing off 18 straight penalties
- fast forward 3 weeks, and zero'ing in on the 5 game losing skid, Merritt has been outscored 23-4 (4 goals on 200 shots), they've given up the first goal in every single game, never led for a second, haven't scored in the 1st period at all (only 2 goals in the first 2 periods through 5 games). The power play has gone 1 for 22 (4.5%), and the penalty kill has given up goals in every game, 10 goals total on 24 opposition opportunities (58.3%). Overall, the Cents have outshot the opposition in 4 of the 5 games (except Penticton), for a 5-game total of 200-168. That means that, combined, the goalies are averaging a 4.60 GAA and .863 SV%) during the slump, a far cry from their potential, when you consider that Lino Chimienti was recently the BCHL player of the week with 2 straight shutouts, and Tyler recently came off a 3 game winning streak where he gave up just 1 goal in each game
- over the last 8 games, the Cents have managed just 12 goals, and 11 of them have come from the 1st line... imagine the pressure on the 1st line to score every game and on the goalies to be near flawless each game... it's simply too much of a burden. There are a lot of guys on marathon point and goal droughts, which is the opposite of what made the Cents so successful earlier, when all 4 lines showed the ability to score, and not just kill clock
- based on all the above stats, it's clear that there are no scapegoats for this drought. There isn't a single thing or individual players that are the cause. The success was entirely due to a "team effort" and this is definitely a "team slump" that the guys have to dig out of collectively
- the matchup with Vernon will be a real tough one, as the Vipers have found their groove and are getting healthy. They've won 4 in a row, so this is a couple of trains going in opposite directions. This is also the first taste of the playoffs the Vipers have had in months, as they are tied for the 4th spot with Chilliwack, and have a chance to take sole possession of that 4th spot when they play in Chilliwack tomorrow. The Snakes are full of confidence and hungry as heck right now, so watch for them to make a big push, especially early in the game
- today marks exactly ONE month until the end of the regular season on March 10th, and the standings indicate a real need for urgency and desperation. The breathing room is extremely limited: the Cents lead for 2nd place is 5 points on Prince George, but the Spruce Kings have 2 games in hand, and play 3 games this weekend against Trail, Trail and Salmon Arm... 3 very winnable games. If Merritt loses tonight, there is a very good chance they are in 3rd place come Tuesday's home game vs Vernon (they've held down 2nd for about 3 months now). And don't forget both Vernon and Chilliwack of course, who are 8 points back with 2 games in hand (with a win today vs Merritt, tomorrow vs Chilliwack and Tuesday again vs Merritt, Vernon could cut the deficit to 2 points with 1 game in hand). The battle is not just for 2nd place anymore, but to remain in a playoff spot outright. The slump has to end NOW!
*Here is the projected lineup for the Cents tonight, with Brandon Bruce drawing back in on the 4th line, Tyler Martin a healthy scratch, and Tyler Steel getting the start (his 2nd straight) in his hometown:
Regan Soquila (93) Chad Brears (91) Evan Stack (91)
Carter Shinkaruk (91) Brayden Low (93) Jakob Reichert (93)
Silvan Harper (92) Brent Fletcher (92) Brendan Lamont (94)
Payton Schaefer (93) Brandon Bruce (93) Sean Maktaak (92)
Reece Willcox (94) Brandon Pfeil (92)
Richard Sabourin (92) Ross Mancuso (92)
Billy Marshall (91) Dylan Chanter (95)
Tyler Steel (93)
Lino Chimienti (91)
SCRATCHES:
Tyler Martin (93)
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