Tuesday 14 February 2012

PREVIEW: Vernon @ Merritt

Merritt: 26-17-2-5 (59 pts) - 3rd in Interior (first time since Nov. 18 they've fallen out of 2nd)
LAST GAME: 4-1 loss to Vernon on Friday (6th loss in a row and 7th in 8 games)

Vernon: 25-21-1-2 (53 pts) - 5th in Interior (2 points behind Chilliwack)
LAST GAME: 3-1 loss to Chilliwack on Saturday (ended a 5 game win streak)

Season Series: Merritt 3-2-1-1 (outscored by Vernon 16-15)
  • this is the only game on the BCHL schedule tonight, and it will have plenty of eyes/ears on it, as the result of this game will have plenty of implications in the standings. There's lots of intrigue for this one
  • this is also the 8th and final meeting between the two clubs this season, and will decide who wins the season series. Considering Merritt is only 6 points up on Vernon and the Vipers have 1 game in hand, there is a good chance the two teams could wind up tied, in which case the season series might become very important in deciding the tie-breaker
  • the Centennials are officially in the longest slump of the season with 0 points in their last 6 games, and with 7 losses in 8 games, this has officially negated the 7 game win streak which led up to this. Their 6 game winless streak earlier this season (games 3-8 of the season) consisted of 3 overtime points, so this is a real mental hurdle for the players. 
  • Adversity has been pretty much maxed out, and with their slip into 3rd place for the first time in nearly 3 months, the main concern has turned into simply making the playoffs, which will likely take at least 6 wins in their last 10 games (maybe 7 or 8 to get back into 2nd and home ice advantage) 
  • with morale likely at a season low, this is exactly the time where coaching comes into play, to keep the players upbeat, positive and motivated. The captains (Evan Stack with Billy Marshall and Richard Sabourin) will have more responsibility now as well, as they will have to be assistant coaches as well, and make sure there is no sulking or, as they say, "feeling sorry for yourself". There is no time to deal with that, as the breathing room in the standings has pretty much fully evaporated
  • the last game with the Vipers on Friday was a bit of a saw-off. The Cents didn't get "outplayed", but again they struggled to finish their chances, and a couple of mental blunders in the 2nd made the difference. They seemed to simply get "outskilled" by a healthy Vipers team that showed a little more desperation again and won the game with "finish" that Merritt couldn't find. Obviously tonight, Merritt will have to find a whole new level of desperation and find the "finish" on home ice that they couldn't find on the road
  • if you look for "baby steps" during a skid, last game was the first one during this slump that Merritt won the special teams battle, as they went 1 for 4 on the power play, and Vernon went 0 for 4. It was the first game in the slump Merritt didn't give up a power play goal
  • overall, the stats still look ugly, as Merritt has been outscored 27-5 during this 6 game slump, and haven't scored more than 1 goal during the last 5 games (only 3 goals). Going back 9 games now, Merritt has only scored 13 goals, and 12 of those have been from the 1st line. This offensive drought has put Merritt into a tie with Langley for the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league, averaging just 2.9 goals per game
  • despite the special teams win in the last game, during the 6 game skid, Merritt power play is still just 2 for 26, while their penalty kill has given up 10 goals on 28 opposition opportunities. This is polar opposite from the 7 game win streak, where Merritt had a 10 for 21 stretch on the power play, and at one point the penalty kill went a gaudy 55 for 60 over 17 games
  • overall, there isn't a whole lot "new" to talk about, as the issues have mostly remained the same during the slump. But for the players on the ice, they can't think about any of the struggles or the numbers. The only number they need to concern themselves with is in the standings, where they are currently in 3rd, and in serious danger of falling to 4th or even out of the playoffs if they go winless this week vs Vernon today, Coquitlam Friday and Chilliwack Saturday. It's time to summon the strength that only desperation can bring!
***SHOCKING FACT: If Merritt was in the Coastal Conference, they would currently be in 5th, 3 points back of Coquitlam for the final playoff spot
  • when you look at keys tonight, they remain pretty much the same. The 7 game win streak didn't see the Cents trail for a single second... meanwhile, the 6 game skid has seen them goalless in every 1st period, and never once play with the lead. That could be a big difference, and the records indicate that. When scoring 1st, Merritt is 19-2-1-4, but when giving up the first goal, Merritt is 6-15-1-2. Playing with a lead could make all the difference mentally, and will likely result in a different result at the end of the game
  • despite the fact that Vernon is the hotter team having won 5 of their last 6, the home and road records could play a huge factor in this contest. At home, Merritt is an impressive 14-5-0-4, while on the road, the Vipers have lost 13 of their last 14 games (the lone exception being an epic last minute comeback in PG when down 4-2), and have an overall record of 7-15-0-1. This could be a saving grace for Merritt
  • finally, looking at the schedule the rest of the way, Vernon has 7 of their final 11 games (including tonight) on the road, and a few very tough opponents. Their only games where they'll be a guaranteed "favourite" to win will be their last 2 vs Salmon Arm. Outside of that, they have games against Penticton, Powell River, Cowichan Valley, Westside, Chilliwack, Prince George. It'll be a tough trek, so a Merritt win tonight could be one of the last straws in the Vipers playoff hopes, especially if they can't turn their fortunes around on the road
Opening face-off tonight is at 7 o'clock from the Nicola Valley Memorial Arena. Pre-game show on Q101 FM starts at 6:30. You can also tune in at Q101.ca or the BCHL fanzone...

*Here are the projected lineups for tonight's game, which sees Luke Pierce go back to his regular combinations, Lino Chimienti starting in net, and Tyler Martin sitting out as a healthy scratch:

MERRITT:

Regan Soquila (93)           Chad Brears (91)          Evan Stack (9)
 
Silvan Harper (92)            Brent Fletcher (92)        Jakob Reichert (93)

Carter Shinkaruk (91)       Brandon Bruce (93)      Sean Maktaak (92)

Payton Schaefer (93)        Brayden Low (94)         Brendan Lamont (94)


                       Reece Willcox (94)        Brandon Pfeil (92)
       
                    Richard Sabourin (92)       Dylan Chanter (95)

                        Billy Marshall (91)        Ross Mancuso (92)

       
                                           Lino Chimienti (91)       

                                             Tyler Steel (93)       

SCRATCHES

Tyler Martin (93)


VERNON:

Mike Zalewski (92)         Adam Tambellini (94)       Aaron Hadley (93)
               
Patrick McGillis (91)        Colton Cyr (91)              Ben Gamache (91)

Colton Sparrow (93)        Darren Nowick (91)         John Knisley (92)
               
Brendan Persley (93)       Jedd Soleway (94)          Riley Hunt (95)


                        Brett Corkey (92)            Turner Lawson (94) 
       
                        Marc Hetnik (92)             Geoff Crisfield (93)
       
                         Ryan Renz (93)             Sean Robertson (91)

       
                                           Kirby Halcrow (91)       

                                       Danny Todosychuk (94)      

SCRATCHES

Luke Juha (93)
Max Mowat (93)

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